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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

11.11.2024 / 09:05 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 11.11.2024
Target price: EUR 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q1p: Improved top-line but reduced transfer income; chg.

Q1 sales increased by 4.9% to EUR 107m (eNuW: 104m), which was predominantly
driven by advertising (+16% to EUR 39.2m; eNuW: EUR 34.1m) as well as TV
Marketing (+4% to EUR 39.2m; eNuW: EUR 38.6m). Moreover, sales from match
operations increased by 5% to EUR 8.1m, in line with our estimates, while
conference, catering and others was significantly ahead of our forecast with
EUR 14.1m (eNuW: EUR 10.8m). On the other hand, merchandising sales declined in
Q1 by 36% to EUR 10.0m (eNuW: EUR 12.4m), after the strong previous year's
quarter was mainly boosted by the sale of 90k special jerseys.

Despite the increased top-line, Q1 EBITDA declined to EUR 25.7m (eNuW: EUR
32.0m), implying a margin of 24.0%. The previous year's EBITDA of 79.4m was
mainly pushed by a stronger transfer income following the transfer of Jude
Bellingham to Real Madrid (EUR 103m fee). This summer, only Niclas Füllkrug's
transfer to West Ham (eNuW: EUR 27m) was of significance, which is explaining
the gap, as transfer income declined by 77% to EUR 19.3m.

With its FY '23/24 report, management also put out a new guidance, targeting
sales of EUR 503m (eNuWnew: EUR 502m), an EBITDA of EUR 110-120m (eNuW: EUR 120m)
and a FCF of EUR 21m (eNuW: EUR 20.4m).

On the sporting side, BVB had a rough start into the new Bundesliga season.
Although the club won every single home game, including an important win
against UCL side Leipzig, the team did not manage to win an away game so far
resulting in only 16 points and 7th place in the standings. If the team does
not overcome its weakness on the road, it could become difficult to qualify
for the UCL at the end of the season. In contrast to this, BVB is again
looking sharp in this years UCL campaign, having won 3 out of 4 games with
the only loss coming from the away game at Real Madrid. With four games to
go, the team is now in a very good position to gain a Top-8 spot, which
would guarantee qualification for the round of 16. According to sports data
provider opta, 17 points are sufficient in 100% of cases (50k simulations),
while 16 points is enough in 98% and 15 points in 73% of cases. The
necessary 7 points to get to 16 should be achievable given remaining
opponents like Zagreb (A), Barcelona (H), Bologna (A) and Donetsk (H).
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 5.50 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31251.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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