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07.11. 09:31

Original-Research: Cenit AG (von GBC AG): BUY


Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG

Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 18,70 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

9M 2022: Growth course continued; Earnings increase despite special
effects; GBC earnings estimates slightly adjusted; Target price: EUR18.70
(previously: EUR19.00); BUY rating
In the past third quarter of 2022, CENIT AG achieved a significant increase
in sales revenues of 31.0 % to EUR 41.95 million (PY: EUR 32.04 million), thus
significantly accelerating the growth dynamics of the first two quarters of
the year. However, a significant part of the growth has an inorganic
origin. This is because the acquired ISR Information Products AG (ISR for
short) has been contributing to the group's revenues since June 2022. In
the third quarter, the inorganic sales contribution amounted to EUR 5.94
million, which means that CENIT AG achieved organic sales growth of 12.4%.
Over the first nine months, the increase in sales was 11.5% to EUR 115.86
million (previous year: EUR 103.96 million). Adjusted for ISR sales totalling
EUR 7.97 million, organic growth was 3.8%.
Separated according to the individual revenue segments, the
disproportionate increase in consulting revenues (+35.4%) is again evident,
while proprietary software revenues (+6.5%) and third-party software
revenues (+1.7%) show a significantly lower growth dynamic. Since the
business of the newly acquired ISR consists largely of consulting services,
the inorganic effect can be found in particular in the consulting revenues.
In this sales segment, CENIT AG is also benefiting from high demand from
the aerospace sector and, in principle, from catch-up effects after
consulting and service sales had each declined sharply during the corona
Total revenues of EUR 69.52 million (previous year: EUR 68.35 million) for the
first nine months of 2022 consist of recurring revenues, which account for
60.0% of the total. There is therefore good planning predictability for the
subsequent reporting periods.
Compared to the 11.5% increase in sales, CENIT AG reports a
disproportionately low increase in EBIT of 6.0% to EUR 2.58 million (previous
year: EUR 2.44 million) and thus a slightly lower EBIT margin of 2.2%
(previous year: 2.3%). Although the newly acquired ISR contributed EUR 1.00
million to the group EBIT, this was offset by ancillary acquisition costs
of EUR 0.16 million. In addition, CENIT AG had received short-time working
benefits of around EUR 1.3 million in the previous year, which led to a
corresponding reduction in personnel expenses. Finally, research allowances
were reduced by around EUR 0.50 million compared to the previous year.
Against the background of the above-mentioned effects, their EBIT
development can be considered a success.
CENIT's management has confirmed its guidance for the current business
year, subject to the express proviso that the economic and
industry-specific conditions do not deteriorate significantly. The company
continues to expect consolidated sales of around EUR 170 million and a
consolidated EBIT of around EUR 9.0 million. Based on this, the company would
have to generate revenues of around EUR 54 million and an EBIT of around EUR
6.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, which would be equivalent to a
significant increase in revenues and earnings compared to the final quarter
of the previous year.
However, the Executive Board is confident that it will be able to achieve
what it has forecast. On the one hand, the inorganic contributions to
turnover and earnings should contribute significantly to the expansion of
the key operating figures expected for the fourth quarter. On the other
hand, foreseeable new customers could already lead to an increase in
proprietary software sales, which should be particularly relevant for the
expected increase in earnings.  In our previous forecasts (see study of
04.08.2022) we were slightly above the company's guidance, especially on
the earnings side. We are taking the current business development as an
opportunity to reduce our earnings forecasts for the current financial year
only. We now expect an EBIT of EUR 8.70 million (previously: EUR 9.42 million).
Our forecasts for the coming financial years remain unchanged.
Within the framework of the adjusted DCF valuation model, we have
determined a new target price of EUR 18.70 (previously: EUR 19.00). Although
the slight reduction in the target price is slightly due to the lowering of
the 2022 earnings forecasts, the main reason for this is the further
increase in the risk-free interest rate to 1.50% (previously: 1.25%). We
continue to assign a rating of BUY.

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Date (time) of completion: 07/11/2022 (08:07 am)
Date (Time) first distribution: 07/11/2022 (09:30 am)

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