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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

11.11.2024 / 09:07 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 11.11.2024
Target price: EUR 12.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q3 preview: Solid release ahead and easy to achieve guidance

Topic: On Thursday, Nov. 14th, MLP will releas Q3 results, after previously
having released an ad-hoc with Q3 EBIT to come in 'significantly above
previous year's Q3 due to a EUR 17m performance fee collection and
consequently raising the FY'24e EBIT guidance (see update from Oct. 8th).
Here's what we expect in detail:

Q3 total sales should arrive elevated at EUR 242m (+15% yoy) driven by a mix
of (1) the aforementioned performance fees (EUR 17m vs. 0.1m in Q3'23) and (2)
a solid underlying development with sales ex performance fees to be up 7%
yoy. For the latter, we expect the segments FERI (+41% yoy to EUR 75m, +9% yoy
ex perf. fees), Banking (+14% yoy to EUR 54m), Finanzberatung (+7% yoy to EUR
95m) and from low levels also the RE segment Deutschland.Immobilien (+58%
yoy to EUR 9m) to have contributed most to the growth.

Q3 EBIT should mainly profit from the performance fee contribution (eNuW: EUR
11m EBIT effect, c. 65% incremental margin) and thus grow by 133% yoy to EUR
18m. Adjusting for performance fees, underlying EBIT should arrive at EUR 7m,
down only slightly (-8% yoy), as we expect a constant yoy net interest
income of EUR 12.5m due to recent interest rate declines.

Based on our estimates (EUR 67m EBIT per 9M), the FY'24e guidance of EUR 85-95m
EBIT would only require a Q4 EBIT of EUR 18-28m (eNuW: EUR 28m), which compares
well to previous periods of EUR 23m (Q4'22) and EUR 25m (Q4'23). Mind you, that
both previous Q4s recorded no significant collection of performance fees and
were burdened by goodwill impairments in the RE segment (EUR 3m in Q4'22; EUR 4m
in Q4'23). As current capital market performance bodes well for potential
performance fees, while also the market recovery in RE poses less risk for
another goodwill impairment in Q4, the chances are that the guidance could
be outperformed. Despite us not assuming significant performance fees for
Q4, we are positioned at the top end of the guidance (eNuW: EUR 95m).

Against this backdrop, we expect a solid Q3 release, also with record high
AuMs of EUR 61bn, +9% yoy. Therefore, we confirm MLP in our NuWays Alpha List
and reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged PT of EUR 12.00, based
on FCFY'24e.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31249.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2026355 11.11.2024 CET/CEST

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