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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

12.12.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 12.12.2024
Target price: EUR 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Media income to increase // Easy draw for CWC

Media rights. Once again, the German Football League (DFL) managed to
surpass the billion-euro per season mark for awarding the German-language
media rights for the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2. With total revenues of EUR
4.5bn, it even surpassed the previous award (+2%), which should be seen as a
major success, given the results the French league recently achieved.
Assuming no change in the distribution model, BVB should hence expect
slightly increased sales in national TV marketing over the upcoming cycle
(2025-2029).

CWC draw. On 5th December, FIFA drew the groups for the Club World Cup in
2025, which will take place in the US. Here, BVB got very lucky, having been
drawn in a group with Brazilian side Fluminense, Korea's Ulsan HD and
Mamelodi Sundowns FC from South Africa. To give you some perspective: With
the current market values of the respective squads, Fluminense would rank
15th in the Bundesliga, while Ulsan and Mamelodi Sundowns wouldn't even be
in the Top 4 of Bundesliga 2. BVB's market value is 3.8x of the combined
value of the other teams. Hence, anything other than a group win would be a
disappointment, in our view. We thus regard BVB's chances as high to at
least advance into the quarterfinals of the tournament. Yet, as FIFA has not
provided the public with information regarding the prize money structure, we
do not yet include this in our estimates, especially as the tournament takes
place during BVB's fiscal year transition, thus providing upside to our
estimates.

Meanwhile, the team continues to perform well in the UCL this season.
Despite last night's defeat against Barcelona, BVB is well positioned to
achieve a Top 8 spot, which allows for direct qualification for the round of
16. With 12 points in the book and 2 games to go against Bologna and
Donetsk, 4 more points (1 win & 1 draw) would be sufficient in 98% of cases
to achieve that spot. In our view, this should be absolutely achievable.
Mind you, even 15 points, implying one more win, would be enough in 73% of
cases. There's no place like home. BVB continues to show two faces in the
Bundesliga. While the club is leading the home game standings, they are only
16th in the away standings, having scored only 2 points in 6 games thus far.
To qualify for next seasons UCL campaign, the team quickly needs to improve
performance outside the Signal Iduna Park. Otherwise, our 2025/26e estimates
could be at risk.

We hence reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 5.50 PT based on DCF

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31533.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2049505 12.12.2024 CET/CEST

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